Canada must maintain immigration as a priority to remain competitive in the global economy at the end of the century, according to a new study.
The study by The lancet predicts a global population decline from the late 21st century. They suggest that the world’s population will peak at 9.73 billion in 2064 and decrease to 8.79 billion by 2100.
The study’s researchers expect Canada’s population to peak at 45.2 million in 2078 and decrease to 44.1 million in 2078. However, this is much more conservative than that Conference Board of CanadaThe 2018 forecast that Canada’s population would reach 45 million by 2040 should immigrate to one percent of the country’s population each year. It was also suggested that Canada’s population growth would depend entirely on immigration by 2030.
Most of Canada’s population growth is already due to immigration. In 2019, around 82 percent of population growth came from the arrival of immigrants and around 18 percent from newborns, a number that is reported to decrease each year Canadian Statistics.
“For high-income countries whose birth rates are below the replacement level, liberal immigration policy is the most immediate solution,” wrote the Lancet researchers.
Canada had the highest net immigration rates in the study alongside Turkey and Sweden. If Canada’s openness to immigration persists, the research shows that sustained population growth and an expansion of the workforce will go hand in hand with economic growth.
Canada is expected to replace Russia as the tenth largest economy in the world by 2030 and maintain that position until the end of the century. With Canada expected to maintain strong GDP in the next century, it is also expected to maintain geopolitical power by maintaining its working-age population through immigration.
“The optimal strategy for economic growth, budget stability and geopolitical security is liberal immigration with effective assimilation into these societies,” the study said.
The researchers concluded that the population decline, once it begins, is unlikely to stop by the end of the century. Nonetheless, Canada is one of the countries that are expected to support their people through thorough liberal immigration and social policies that provide greater support to women who work and have control over their reproductive rights. This should also result in Canada having a larger GDP, with the various social, economic and geopolitical benefits that come with a stable working-age population.
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