It’s surreal right now.
We are in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s big business.
In this article, I’m going to talk about how to deal with these major changes in the economy, real estate, and the way we work, live, and thrive.
Get a quick context to this blog post before you dive in …
Listen to the full podcast episode below
Now everyone is influenced in some way, in some form, or in some form. However, they do not have to be negatively influenced.
There are people I know, companies that I know and that are currently doing better than ever because they are geared towards it, set up and planning such things. Or maybe they were just lucky and of course certain products that are in very high demand for these times.
I’ll talk about how to better prepare for what’s to come.
How do you get to the other side of this stronger one?
How do you plan and prepare for the event as a real estate investor or broker?
I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t take this seriously early enough. I thought it was just how many people said it was so cold, it was this flu. The flu numbers kill more people than this kills. And frankly, that was just a complete misunderstanding of how pandemics work, a complete misunderstanding of how math actually works in such situations.
Prepare for the financial impact
I want you to prepare for the financial side. What happens to all the shutdowns? When it comes to shutdowns, the devastating part is on the financial side, since there is the health side, which is a big deal, but is likely to be short-lived, months rather than years. The financial side, however, is where it gets really, really interesting, and possibly scary for many people.
So if you have orders for the local stay in California and Washington (now in Oregon) and everywhere and the children here in Oregon no longer go to school until the end of April and not only during the spring holidays …
This leaves over a month and a half before parents have to figure out how to work at home while trying to take care of their children. We have team members who have several children at home who are working and trying to do their best work. We have therefore introduced guidelines to offer our team members more flexibility and more leeway during these times. And we said, “We’ll take two weeks each over the next two weeks.”
However, we do not apply the brakes.
This is the time when we need to step on the gas more than ever to help our customers more than ever and to help you wade and win through this market.
And here I come next because there are still so many people doing surprisingly well right now because so many people are withdrawing and I’ll show you exactly how to do that but we have to double down and help to win you more now without withdrawing and saying, “Hey, let’s see and see.”
Don’t brake … step on the gas
I think if you wait and see you will likely be affected much more negatively than you wish.
We’ve set the policy to specify the hours you can for the next two weeks. We don’t want you to have to choose between a good father or mother and a good worker. I’d rather you make the decision to be a good mother than to try to fit in every 40 hours. So if you can only do 35 hours of good work, good focus work, great. Enroll the full 40 within the next two weeks. Then we take two weeks each.
So if you are an employer, find out how you can really help your team members. Help your team members trust the way you do things.
Next, as an employer, you have to update your team members at least once a week. I did one last week, pulled up a few slides, and just walked through …
“Hey, here’s what we know about the pandemic so far.”
“This way, we can help you even more to make your work from home even better than before.”
Then the next one was …
“Let’s go through the financial picture. Let’s go through how much cash reserves we have. How long could we run this business if some great things happen that increase our income by 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% or Lower 50%. “
Now the 10% is realistic, possibly 20%. 50%, I don’t think this would happen, but there are cash reserves that we have that could survive and thrive.
I also adopted the setting …
“But here are the plans we have. Will we adjust our second quarter growth plans in our hiring? Well, we take some of our employees into the role of a contractor until it stops. “
We don’t stop these settings because we need them. We need them to grow, we need them to serve you better. However, we are moving them to contractors to add this additional buffer.
So that’s another step you can take. If you have any new employees, make them contractors instead of employees over the next few months to see how things go.
Survive and thrive
Next, I’m going to give you some really, really actionable steps. How do you wade through, thrive and survive?
The first is that you have to have reserves.
Let’s look at the basic level. The people who will get in trouble are the people who have run and lost quickly in the past three, four, five, six years.
I think whatever your situation is, it will go on forever in a good way and have no reserves in stock. The only thing I’ve always had pretty good discipline in and that we’ve worked through in the past few years is working out reserves.
We review our earnings every quarter and I always determine how many months of cash reserves we need to run the company. And some people suggest three months, six months a year. I suggest that every company should have six months of operational money.
What I mean by operational cash is what does it actually cost you to run your business? When all of your earnings are gone, how much does it cost to run your business?
This includes all of your employees, all of your fixed costs and the like. Add that up for six months. And then I think you should have that in your bank account for reserves.
As I said, the chances of you not bringing in any money for six months are very slim, but at least it gives you room to breathe.
Now you have time to pan, adjust and change course if necessary. If you only have a month or two or three months, you are in crisis mode at this point. You can’t really get crazy creative and have time to really withdraw, think and spin. You won’t have the luxury of planning a bit.
Build reserves now
What can you set up now to ensure that you build up your reserves?
Do that now. Start storing cash and start building up this six-month reserve. Do the same on the personal side. Start having more cash in stock than you would normally do now. Build it up in reserves, six months, personal expenses, your mortgage …
What does it cost you to live personally? Do that. The next thing is, even if you don’t predict a downturn in your business, you’ll start cutting costs.
Look at things like this because we want to plan the worst, but hope for the best. Okay, plan the worst, hope for the best. And those of you who don’t take this seriously enough may get bitten in the butt in a few months.
Now we don’t hope. But when I started to deal with these financial implications when parents stay at home and when businesses close, unemployment suddenly increases from 3% to 5%, for the next month or two to 20% and unemployment benefits rush in there.
Then suddenly you have some people who cannot pay their rent. So what happens to the landlords during this time? Well, some landlords may have difficulty paying their mortgages because some of their employees may be restaurant workers. They can be workers whose position is closed and they may not be able to pay their rent.
What if you are a landlord who is overworked and has no cash reserves for a while? Your mortgage cannot pay that now. Now you’re going to default on your mortgage, and then, say, a number of landlords will start defaulting their mortgages in three months or two months, and you’ll have some kind of banking problems like good.
Will it be the same now as in 2008? Now let’s dive into some economic things.
The likelihood that this will happen is extremely low. They are simply completely different factors that are currently occurring in the economy.
In 2001, September 11, 2001, it was an event, a terrorist attack, that completely ruined the economy for months. And that wasn’t because something was fundamentally wrong with the economy. This event was not a bubble …
But there was the .com bust that had happened a few years earlier. This was fundamentally wrong with the economy. There were far too many overinvestments in the tech world. Nobody knew what it was. Too many IPOs that were oversubscribed. And then a bubble burst.
9/11 an event that was an event with black swans. A bit like this pandemic, which is beyond the control of most people. It is not something that is really easy to plan well. But it has an enormous impact.
After September 11, people basically stopped traveling. And when people stop traveling, the travel industry is decimated. Hotels, airlines, exactly what is happening and what has passed into everything else increases unemployment.
But it wasn’t all that crazy, crazy long. Go back and look at the history books. Some of it lasted throughout the year. It took a while for the travel industry to recover, that’s for sure. Some things came back within months. The overall economy and the stock market were affected, but real estate prices actually continued to rise.
So real estate prices did not fall, they continued to increase. That is a little different, however, because it came from the stock market crash, the tech bubble from ’98, ’99, 2000.
Things had improved a little there. The difference is that at the end of a bull cycle of the past 12 years we are almost overdue on the stock exchange and on the real estate market.
All of these things have been amazing in the past 12 years. And I’ve been preparing Carrot and my team for a recession for several years. We don’t know when it will happen, but current policies may help sustain the economy longer than I think it should have.
So does that make a bubble? Possibly.
There could be some things, but this event of the black swan pandemic now began to kick it forward and kick it down the curb. I believe this will be a step into the recession.
Will this recession be like 2008? I do not believe that.
Again, there are not the same basic economic problems that the mortgage crisis has caused. And the topic of this time has nothing to do with real estate itself.
Last time the problem was directly related to the overheating of the real estate market. Too many people buy real estate that shouldn’t, because it was far too easy to get loans.
We don’t see that at the moment. I don’t expect property prices to plummet as they haven’t been inflated as much as before.
Are we now taking a small drop in prices? I think so. I think some markets may slow somewhat towards the end of the year, but I think it would be a slowdown.
How real estate agents have changed
In the short term, I spoke to many agents about what they see and what they experience in their world.
The experienced don’t miss the beat.
Some have now turned to virtual shows Zoom or Facebook Live instead of a big open house. They invite everyone to tune in to their zoom room for a certain amount of time, walk around the house and talk about it. And then they give people a tour. They still show houses.
An agent said there were buyers who still want to buy, but they’ll put the brakes on them somehow and wait a bit. There were also a salesman or two who didn’t want a few people to walk through their house at this time, which is understandable, but they generally said that they were still closing the houses. You closed six houses last week alone.
What many other people use, let fear prevent them from doing it. They assume that real estate doesn’t work because all of these things are happening. That none of this will continue to work.
This is simply not the case. This is simply not the case at all.
More information about corona virus and brokers can be found here conduct.
How real estate investors have changed
When talking to investors, some are concerned about their portfolios because they have so many lower income tenants. That should be a problem. You should be tight. You should now get as much liquidity as possible just to plan the worst and hope for the best.
But for people out there turning houses, selling houses, buying houses, things like that, we don’t see any real slowdown. Now there are some communities that are closed or have no transactions.
I spoke to Cody Sperber in Phoenix, Arizona last week. He will shortly publish a podcast edition for CarrotCast here. Cody said he canceled one or two escrow transactions, but we see that it’s more about the financiers. It’s more about funding. It’s more about the private lenders who pull … They put the brakes on a bit.
Let us wait and find out. Let us reduce our risk. Let’s wait a month or two before we start providing cash. So you will see that some private lenders do this.
How do you deal with that?
Well, number one, if you are a home buyer, you need to go to your private lenders, talk to them and let them know what opportunities there are in the market and how to secure your investments.
Now go to them and talk. Make a zoom call with your investors and talk to them about the market, what you see locally, what other local investors see, how you will protect your investment during this time, but also about the opportunity to create more value and achieve even higher returns during this time.
That has to be done. You need to contact your investors now to continue building that relationship and building trust and credibility with them so they can feel comfortable in these crazy times.
Next, if you’re a pinball or a wholesaler, there are so many of you who are slowing down your marketing and you will say, “I’ll wait and see.”
It’s crazy right now. This is the worst thing you can do.
Here is Cody Sperber’s schedule in the current situation …
You have an audience right now
At the moment you have some of the largest trapped target groups out there so people can see your marketing message. Mail is still being delivered. It does not seem to be planned that the mail will no longer be delivered. Calls are still being answered. All the more so because people are at home and possibly at home from work.
People go online and are still looking.
In some categories, they do more searches than before. We saw a slump in house sellers a few weeks ago. We’ll look at the dates and see. It’s hardly, it’s about 10%.
After a current WordStream study, Search traffic in the real estate industry remains relatively stableas well as small changes in search volume, CPC or conversion rates.
Over the next two or three weeks, some major changes could have important ramifications for the industry.
What can you expect?
What I’m predicting is that people looking for investment property may be pulling back part of their demand right now.
I assume that in this first phase of the fear of a pandemic, many people will stop because they don’t know what else to do. They will pause for fear, they will pause and mean, “I want to wait a bit to see what happens before I sell my house.”
But here’s the deal. If they start having income problems, if they already had a problem with the property they need to sell, and it is now getting worse with the economy, it will only happen over the weeks …
This pain will actually increase.
So if you are an agent or an investor, you have to be out there to relieve people’s pain. This is not about taking advantage of people. There is not a single treat here.
What we need to do as a society is to find out how we can solve people’s pain.
How can we really solve problems? How can we really add value to people’s worlds when they need it most and when some people need it more than ever?
Right now is not the time to put the brakes on. Right now is not the time to withdraw and say, “I’ll wait and find out.”
Now is not the time to withdraw your marketingRight now it’s time to double your marketing and increase your marketing expenses.
I spoke to Christina Krause, one of the largest directors for direct investors, and she said her three biggest customers had made her biggest purchases in the past two to three weeks. That says a lot!
Why is that? Because what they do is that there are many printers, post stores and the like that may be closed for a while if there is an order at home or an order on the spot. Many of these stores may be located in California or other states where they place orders for their home.
Receive your orders immediately… So that your packages are printed out before orders are processed at home.
Make these big orders and then withdraw. The post does not seem to close. Could that change? It could.
Place these orders, get your direct mail because what happens if you try to place your order and then slow down the business for two weeks? Suddenly you are two to three weeks back, maybe even four weeks back because now you have a supply of orders to process.
You are two to four weeks behind sending emails to people who need them most. Then those who send mail constantly and frequently during these times will emerge victorious on the other side.
Those who look at their Google PPC costs and say, “Hey there are people.” What you will see now are people who are reducing or stopping their PPC, spending.
You will see people stop their PPC spending because they are afraid to see, “Oh my god, my click costs are $ 45 per click or $ 25 per click and my leads are $ 300, oh my god.” But that’s when you trust emotions, not math.
You need to go back to the basics we’ve been teaching for years …
TRUST MATH NOT EMOTION
If your average profit per deal is $ 20,000, your average commission per deal as an agent is $ 10,000, and as an investor, say, after that $ 20,000 profit, you will need 10 incoming leads via PPC or online SEO to close the deal deal that’s about average, right there, 10-15.
I would say average, the highest lead to close ratio you can get with any lead. Every lead as an agent and investor. So if you close one in ten and your average property is $ 20,000 and you are ready to trade $ 5,000 to close that $ 20,000 deal in marketing, you can pay up to $ 500 per lead and win The market.
And there are so many people who cut and kill their pay-per-click at $ 150 per lead, at $ 95 per lead at $ 225 per lead, because their neighbor gets leads for $ 22 or $ 5 on Facebook or because they are afraid.
At the moment you have to look at your numbers again and say …
“I will double that. I will spend even more. I will make sure that I answer these calls faster.”
Stay in front of these sellers and help them serve even better. Make sure you make them several different offers.
Just like on the carrot peak, Eric Young, one of our members in Denverhe goes out with three offers.
Can you imagine that in this market where a lot is happening and there are people who want to sell, a guy like Eric comes in and says:
“Hey, here are three ways …
# 1 … List it for the most money in your pocket.
# 2 … I can pay cash, but it will be a discountt, but it’s instant and you don’t have to worry about repairs or the like.
# 3 … or I see that there is an opportunity to renovate Your kitchen and bathroom and add $ 60,000 in value with an investment of $ 20,000. I’m going to use the $ 20,000. I will bring my construction team with me. After that, you and I will split the difference between the equity gained …
… For this additional equity, which will add $ 50,000 in additional equity, I will get my $ 20,000 back for the renovation, leaving $ 30,000, and we will split that up. You get an additional $ 15,000 in addition to what you would get if you only listed it as it is. I’m going to get $ 15,000. Then I will also get the listing here for the rest of the principle. OK?”
Be creative now
Here are three things you should do now.
First create reserves for private individuals and companies.
Make sure you have six months of reserves in the bank. If you don’t have six months of reserves in the bank, should you freak out? No, but you should prepare for it. You should retire and say, “What spending can I cut now to build more reserves?”
Stop spending on ice cream. Stop spending on things that don’t matter. Shorten your Netflix subscription for a while. Whatever you need to do, build up cash reserves, not just for the pandemic, but when a recession sets in, there are always amazing opportunities, but only for those who are ready, only for those who are actually ready benefit opportunity with cash or with partners who have cash.
Second, get out there and start building relationships with private investors.
Start building relationships with these private lenders because these people are the people who have been accumulating money for years and they want market opportunities when those opportunities arise.
Build relationships with people who are doing well near you. Ask them about their plans, tell them what you’re doing in real estate, and start getting them interested.
Don’t ask them for money, but when you talk about what you’re doing enough they’ll be interested, they’ll ask you, and they’ll say, “Hey, yeah, that sounds amazing. Let’s talk about it.” Okay? How do you ensure that you build these relationships proactively now?
Third, grow in these times.
I don’t want you to withdraw I spoke earlier about how there will be many people who do this: “Let’s sit and wait.”
There will be a lot of people doing the pullback and saying, “I’m going to pull out of fear because I don’t know what’s going to happen.” Now is NOT the time to withdraw, NOT the time to withdraw business strategy, NOT the time to withdraw investment and marketing.
At the moment it is time to double. If you’re an agent, create a damn Zoom account and talk to your customers about Zoom. If you are a personal trainer, start zooming in from home with personal training. Get creative now, boys. Do not apply the brakes.
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I want you to grow personally now.
Understandably, there are many people who are currently unsure and concerned. But don’t treat this as a vacation. Dies ist nicht die Zeit, dies als Urlaub zu behandeln.
Jetzt ist nicht die Zeit zu sagen: “Hey, hier kann ich meine Ladung erleichtern.” Jetzt ist die Zeit gekommen, in der Sie wirklich fleißig werden und persönlich wachsen müssen. Lesen Sie persönliche Wachstumsbücher.
Dies ist die Zeit, in der Sie Ihr Lernen tatsächlich verdoppeln müssen. Dies ist die Zeit, in der Sie tatsächlich Kurse belegen oder sich auf die Familie konzentrieren mussten.
Wir müssen fleißiger sein, was bedeutet, entschlossener zu handeln, weniger Zeit zu verschwenden, eine Gelegenheit zu nutzen, die vor uns liegt, und nicht zu sitzen und zu warten.
Es bedeutet, innovativ und kreativ zu sein und mehr Wert zu schaffen als jemals zuvor, jemals zuvor in Ihrem Unternehmen.
Zieh dich nicht zurück. Treten Sie ein. Lehnen Sie sich hinein. Gesund sein. Halten Sie sich von Menschen fern, wenn Sie müssen, aber werden Sie kreativ. Wir werden das mit Ihnen überstehen. Wir stehen dem wahnsinnig positiv gegenüber. Agenten und Investoren stoppen ihre Transaktionen derzeit nicht.
Sie treffen sich immer noch physisch oder über Zoom mit Verkäufern. Sie treffen sich immer noch physisch mit einem Käufer oder haben offene Häuser über Zoom. Investoren machen das Gleiche.
Investoren verdoppeln derzeit ihr Marketing, weil sie dieses Marketing für die nächsten drei, vier, fünf, sechs, sieben Wochen herausbringen müssen, während die Leute Ihre Dienstleistungen jetzt mehr denn je wirklich brauchen.
Sie betätigen nicht die Bremsen.
Hier brauchen Sie mehr denn je Glaubwürdigkeit in Ihrem Unternehmen. Sie brauchen Glaubwürdigkeit. Sie benötigen Online-Glaubwürdigkeit. Sie benötigen Leistung von Ihrem Karottensystem.
Ich werde euch in den nächsten ein oder zwei Wochen ein weiteres Update zu Pandemie-Themen geben und wie ihr wirklich strategisch rausgehen und besser und anders vermarkten könnt und wie ihr euer Geschäft ändern könnt, um in diesen Zeiten remote zu arbeiten.
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