Video: Why the caravans of 2020 threaten the fragile success of Trump’s border policy Us Immigration

It was only last Friday, on my last full report day for the Center for Immigration Studies on the Mexican-Guatemalan border, that I found myself with the most important elements of the recently arrived “caravan” from 2020. It was in Tecún Umán, the Guatemalan border town on the other Side of the Puente Rodolfo Robles International Bridge.

About 300-400 of the mostly young male Hondurans, some of whom put on masks after I started recording the crowd, excitedly sang “Hon-dur-as! Hon-dur-as! Hon-dur-as!” The Guatemalan police had initially kept them from the bridge to Hidalgo, Mexico. They said that it was okay, because it was planned to wait for more migrants to arrive and then slide across the bridge in the morning and drive along Mexico’s back to the American border, just like in previous caravans. Everyone I interviewed said they were coming to work except a man who said he wanted American cancer treatment for the child by his side.

But the excitement on their faces and body language quickly darkened and then dissolved in incredulous glances as I explained to the dozen Hondurans what I had found in the Mexican news coverage last week. This time, I said to the young men who were now listening to me with great interest, they would run headfirst into a new defensive bulwark that the Mexicans had built.

It was obvious that these men hadn’t heard incredibly that Mexico now had the means, the will, and the preparation to stop the caravans by force on this bridge with standby forces and reinforced barbed gate that I had just inspected, but Mexico, too, had built a strand of the Domestic National Guard that caught most of the others and sent them to a deportation machine that transported their masses home by plane and bus. I said my reporting just found out that those who managed to get through this particular area would likely not get close to the American border because of an interlocking system of National Guard roadblocks in the Mexican border state of Chiapas being pretty effectively trapped migrants back to the border deportation machine for food intake.

I told them that those who did not want to be deported had only the choice of filing a Mexican asylum application, but it would take many months to succeed, which would prevent them from filing a US asylum application for years and keeping them in Imprisoning southern Mexico the long wait for the pain of deportation, which was narrowed down by the National Guard.

The Caravanners, of course, ruthlessly and violently stormed directly into this circular saw dramatic melee battles this week after I flew home, as can be seen from the collection of my CIS colleague Jason Peña, which reports on the destruction of the caravan and the mass deportation of its ranks involved. This particular caravan is now broken and worn out, how was it in october that fell on the same Mexican swarms.

But the caravans continue to form and defy deterrence in an apparently targeted campaign to test, test, and shake Mexico’s will to withstand.

America needs Mexico, and border security efforts against illegal mass migration could not be greater. Because while Americans and politicians who oppose illegal mass immigration may feel relief or even rejoice at the fate of these violent caravans, the tireless search shows that President Donald Trump’s successful initiatives that have effectively ended the multi-million dollar mass migration crisis have ended Mexico depend on 2018-2019 and indicates that the unwanted population exchange can be resumed at any time.

These caravans make it clear that Mexico’s cooperation is the most important membrane between an unimpeded resumption of the crisis. And it’s thin.

It should be noted that Mexico does not do all of this out of friendship or informed self-interest, but under duress. With a Democratic House of Representatives blocking all legal remedies to prevent population exchanges in Central America, President Trump had to force Mexico to act on all exports by threatening progressive trade tariffs of up to 25 percent if it did not stop population movements on the southern border.

If even one of these tests, which investigates caravans, is able to detect and exploit a violation of the Mexican defense, or if President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) comes to a standstill for a moment, many more will undoubtedly follow. That would be quick overwhelm American deterrence policy like the “Remain-in-Mexico” pushbacks from asylum seekers, whose efficient management depends on currently manageable volumes. The whole house of cards may be due to a Mexican political mood or an unfortunate incident that was exacerbated by the media.

That day could come anyway in November 2020 if Trump lost the election and his credible threat of debilitating tariffs left the White House with him. If the tariff threat is removed, AMLO could bring the National Guard back to its barracks and reopen its country as the transit country it has always been.

For this reason, constant legal remedies are required, for example to reform US asylum law, close certain incentive gaps and, among other things, remove a barrier.

It is still unclear who is organizing these latest caravans and what their agenda is. There is no doubt that a political agenda is at stake here, although when I was among the caravan migrants, I asked everyone who the leaders were and who led them to which places. The answers I received were typical: no one knew a leader; You just heard about a new caravan on social media, then the regular media picked it up, and a kind of herd formed that focused on where it should go.

But it seems likely that anyone who goes on social media and announces new caravans understands the stakes in building new caravans so well that he is constantly asking Mexicans to assert themselves.

Another is already on the way from Honduras, described this as “massive” and “violent and lawless”.

Until Congress passed more permanent remedies, the Trump administration should now whisper to AMLO that these trade rates are back on the table and far worse for Mexico than the violent and lawless people on the way to its border.

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